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02/11/2012 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of Sunshine State foes in the ACC takes place in Tallahassee this afternoon, as the Miami-Florida Hurricanes do battle with the 15th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
Miami comes in seeking its sixth straight win, as the team improved to 15-7 overall and 6-3 in conference after claiming a 65-49 triumph over visiting Virginia Tech on Thursday night. The Hurricanes have won their last three road bouts as well, the most recent of which being a 78-74 overtime triumph at Duke last Sunday.
Florida State recently had a seven-game win streak stopped in a 64-60 loss at Boston College on Wednesday night, dropping the team to 16-7 overall and 7-2 in the ACC. The Seminoles are a near-perfect 12-1 at home this season, with their only setback at the Tucker Center coming in a triple-overtime affair against Princeton back on December 30.
FSU owns a 38-28 lead in the all-time series with Miami, and the 'Noles have won 10 of the last 11 meetings.
Reggie Johnson scored 15 points, Shane Larkin added 14 and Kenny Kadji chipped in 11 to lead Miami past Virginia Tech earlier this week in south Florida. The Hurricanes shot just 41.4 percent from the field, but held the Hokies to 35.2 percent, and the visitors were guilty of 17 turnovers as well. Miami claimed advantages in points in the paint (24-14) and bench points (19-13), and won the game despite being outrebounded (40-32). Through 22 games, the 'Canes are averaging a healthy 72.1 ppg on the strength of their 44.0 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 35.9 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the team allows 66.9 ppg on typical shooting outputs of just 41.5 percent overall and 33.4 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is -0.6 in rebounding margin, but +1.0 in turnover differential. Durand Scott heads a balanced attack that has four players averaging between 12.0 and 12.6 ppg, with two of them (Johnson and Kadji) making good on better than 52 percent of their field goal attempts.
Florida State is outscoring the opposition by nearly 10 ppg for the season (71.0 ppg to 61.4 ppg), and the team is shooting 45.6 percent from the floor while limiting the enemy to 37.4 percent. Foes have also struggled with their long-range launches, hitting them just 29.3 percent of the time. The Seminoles boast just two double-digit scorers in Michael Snaer (13.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and James Bernard (10.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg), although Ian Miller is close to joining the ranks as he nets 9.8 ppg despite coming off the bench and only appearing in 12 bouts thus far. Snaer was high man once again for FSU in its recent clash with Boston College, hitting for 16 points despite a disappointing shooting night (6-of-18), while James and Miller contributed 12 points apiece in the losing effort. As a team, the Seminoles shot just 39.6 percent from the floor, missing 15 of their 20 three-point attempts along the way. BC had the same overall shooting percentage, but 10 of its 19 total field goals were of the three-point variety.
<< High-flying Cardinals pay visit to struggling Mountaineers
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals take
aim at their sixth straight win today, as they pay a visit to the West
Virginia Mountaineers in Big East Conference action.
Louisville is coming off an 80-59 rout of
<< 25th-ranked Crimson set sights on Tigers
Princeton, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked Harvard Crimson will look to
add onto their best start in school history as they head to Jadwin Gym to take
on the dangerous Princeton Tigers in Ivy League action.
This will be the first of tw
<< Georgia seeks upset of No. 20 Mississippi State
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A good old-fashioned dog fight will take
place in Starkville today, as SEC foes Georgia and Mississippi State do battle
at Humphrey Coliseum.
Georgia comes in with an overall record of 11-12, and the team's
<< Staal set to return as Pens host Jets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The well-rested Pittsburgh Penguins hope a three-game
homestand and the return of Jordan Staal can get them back on track today, as
they'll try to avoid losing for the fourth time in five games when they host
the Winnipeg Jet
Racers seek turnaround against Governors >>
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that the ninth-ranked Murray State Racers
have finally lost their first game, they can now turn their attention to
winning their third straight Ohio Valley Conference regular season
championship, when they host
Top-10 collision on tap in Columbia >>
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-10 foes square off in a crucial Big 12
affair, as the fourth-ranked Missouri Tigers welcome the sixth-ranked Baylor
Bears to Mizzou Arena this afternoon.
Frank Haith's first season in Columbia has been hig
No.1 Kentucky takes act on the road >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats put their
unblemished SEC record in harm's way this evening in Nashville, as they take
on the dangerous Vanderbilt Commodores at Memorial Gym.
John Calipari's Wildcats are you
Blue Devils take on Terps in Durham >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their biggest win of the season, the
10th-ranked Duke Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor Stadium, as they play
host to the Maryland Terrapins in ACC action this afternoon.
Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Dev
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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